Understanding poverty dynamics in Ethiopia: Implications for the likely impact of COVID‐19

Tseday Jemaneh Mekasha and Finn Tarp

Review of Development Economics, 2021, vol. 25, issue 4, 1838-1868

Abstract: We aim at identifying vulnerable groups that face a higher risk of falling into poverty due to the COVID‐19 pandemic. Applying a synthetic panel data approach, our analysis of poverty and vulnerability transitions during the pre‐COVID period shows not only a high rate of poverty persistence in Ethiopia but also a high probability of moving from vulnerable nonpoor status to poor status. Given the observed persistence of poverty and greater risk of downward mobility, even in the pre‐COVID period, it is highly likely that poverty persistence and downward mobility will be aggravated during the current pandemic. A detailed poverty profiling exercise shows that households where the household head is less educated, engaged in the service sector, self‐employed, and a domestic worker are population segments with a high rate of downward mobility. As the emerging evidence on the socioeconomic impact of COVID shows, these segments of the population are also the ones relatively more affected by the pandemic. Overall, the pandemic is likely to result in a serious setback to the progress made in poverty reduction in Ethiopia. Poverty reduction policies should thus target not only the existing poor but also the vulnerable nonpoor.

Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12841

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:25:y:2021:i:4:p:1838-1868

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=1363-6669

Access Statistics for this article

Review of Development Economics is currently edited by E. Kwan Choi

More articles in Review of Development Economics from Wiley Blackwell
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().