Son preference and the demographic transition

Anna‐Maria Aksan

Review of Development Economics, 2022, vol. 26, issue 1, 32-56

Abstract: In a general equilibrium model of fertility with higher economic returns to sons relative to daughters, parents choose overall fertility and the gender composition of their children. Son preference is partially endogenized to reflect how relative scarcity of females raises their value even while social norms and lack of economic opportunities lessen their value. These competing factors lead to an oscillating sex ratio. Model simulations demonstrate that son preference increases fertility, but that sex selection reduces fertility in the presence of son preference. The results suggest that effectively banning sex‐selective abortions in places such as India, which has struggled to enforce its existing ban on the practice, is insufficient and may have unintended consequences such as slowing fertility decline, reducing quality investment in girls, and slowing human capital accumulation and economic growth. Improving economic opportunities for women will increase the value placed on daughters, thereby improving the sex ratio and human capital investment in all children.

Date: 2022
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