Revenue losses from corporate tax avoidance: Estimations from the UNUWIDER Government Revenue Dataset

Alessandro Chiari

Review of Development Economics, 2024, vol. 28, issue 2, 600-629

Abstract: Corporate profit shifting to tax havens negatively impacts corporate tax revenue, particularly in low‐income countries. Two studies published in 2016 and 2018 have proven this correlation using data from 2013. In this paper, I use the 2021 version of the UNU‐WIDER Government Revenue Dataset (GRD) to estimate government revenue losses in 2019 and to observe possible changes associated with the release of the new dataset. My estimations indicate that global tax revenue losses in 2019 are around USD 480 billion if estimated using statutory tax rates, compared to USD 500 billion in 2013. The volume of tax revenue losses in 2019 increases to USD 600 billion if estimated using effective tax rates. In terms of GDP percentage, my estimations confirm the presence of a higher share of losses in low‐income, and more generally, in non‐OECD countries, and they show a higher intensity of tax avoidance practices in those countries. The results also suggest that the total level of tax revenue losses has plateaued, with no increase in losses occurring since 2013 if estimated using statutory tax rates, while an increasing trend is visible for estimates using effective tax rates, although not with the same magnitudes with respect to others recent studies.

Date: 2024
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