Does fiscal expenditure matter for agricultural development? Examining the impact of technological progress on food production

Abbas Ali Chandio, Waqar Akram, Muhammad Usman, Yasir A. Nasereldin and Ilhan Ozturk

Review of Development Economics, 2024, vol. 28, issue 4, 1774-1802

Abstract: Rice is a staple food for vast population of China and it remarkably contributes toward China's food security. Several fiscal programs have been implemented by Chinese central government for sustainable agriculture production. In this study, we examine the long‐run influence of agricultural public investment (API) and (agro)chemical inputs use (i.e., fertilizer and pesticide) on rice yield in main rice‐producing provinces of China. Second‐generation panel unit root tests, Westerlund error correction model cointegration test, Augmented‐Mean Group (AMG) and Common Correlated Effect Mean Group (CCEMG) estimation techniques have been used in this article. The co‐integration test results reveal strong evidence of the existence of the long‐run co‐integrating link between the considered series. The results of the AMG and CCEMG methods show that (i) API, (ii) fertilizer use, and (iii) power consumption for agricultural machinery positively and significantly impact rice productivity, whereas pesticide usage affects it negatively. Panel quantile regression showed that API, fertilizer use, power consumption, and sown area are significant and positive at 0.10–0.90 quantiles. The results also indicate that pesticide usage increases rice production at 0.10–0.30 quantiles but decreases rice production at 0.40–0.90 quantile levels. Based on these findings, we derive pertinent implications for China's food security.

Date: 2024
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