Global Value Chain Participation and Sustainable Development in Belt and Road Initiative Economies: A Blessing or a Curse?

Muhammad Uzair Ali, Baogui Xin and Ming Hung Wong

Review of Development Economics, 2026, vol. 30, issue 1, 18-31

Abstract: In the era where sustainability is vital, global value chains (GVCs) appear as an opportunity and obstacle for fostering sustainable development (SD) in developing economies. The present research inspects the influence of GVCs on sustainable development in 76 Belt and Road (B&R) economies during 2002–2019, combining multi‐region input–output analysis with econometric techniques. The main findings are: (1) GVCs position has a robust and positive link with sustainable development. (2) Participation in forward GVCs augments sustainable development practices and deepening in backward GVCs would reduce sustainable development. (3) Developed, emerging, and developing economies could improve sustainable practices with increased GVCs position and forward GVCs. Increasing backward GVCs would lessen sustainable practices in emerging, developing, and underdeveloped economies, and increase in developed economies. (4) GVCs position and forward GVCs positively encourage sustainable development practices through technological modernization and industrial structure, while backward GVCs have adverse effects. Accordingly, to fully attain the sustainable development potential, it is essential to (1) enhance regional cooperation on environmental governance and emissions management throughout GVC stages; (2) sustain GVCs participation while actively progressing toward knowledge‐intensive forward linkages; (3) implement innovation strategies to strengthen domestic technological capabilities and industrial structure; and (4) shift from resource‐based to innovation‐driven development.

Date: 2026
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