Inequality of Opportunity in Sub‐Saharan Africa: New Evidence From 18 Countries

Aziz Atamanov, P. Facundo Cuevas, Jeremy Lebow and Daniel Gerszon Mahler

Review of Development Economics, 2026, vol. 30, issue 4, 2326-2342

Abstract: Unequal access to opportunity for individuals with different innate characteristics, such as birthplace or ethnicity, is often seen as both morally undesirable and bad for growth. This paper estimates inequality of opportunity, a measure of the extent to which birth characteristics explain inequality, across 18 countries in Sub‐Saharan Africa. A large set of birth characteristics combined with recent machine learning methods facilitates cross‐country comparisons, which is a typical challenge in this literature. The findings show that inequality of opportunity in Sub‐Saharan Africa is stark and more pronounced than previously estimated. On average, inherited circumstances explain more than half of inequality in the region. Estimates range from 40% to 60% in most countries and reach 74% in South Africa. Birthplace, ethnicity, and parents' education tend to be the most significant contributors, but there is variation in the importance of different circumstances across countries. This represents the most comprehensive estimate of inequality of opportunity to date in the poorest and one of the most unequal regions in the world, and it underscores the pressing need for policymakers to intensify efforts to address inequality of opportunity to create more equitable societies and unlock their economic growth potential.

Date: 2026
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