IMPORT FORECASTS FOR INPUT‐OUTPUT MODELS*

John A. Sawyer

Review of Income and Wealth, 1972, vol. 18, issue 3, 303-311

Abstract: The paper presents forecasting models for (1) the share of competitive imports in the total demand for a commodity group and (2) the level of demand for competitive imports of a commodity group. The two forecasting models are used, respectively, with (1) input‐output models which incorporate market share parameters as one vector of coefficients and (2) input‐output models which assume imports have been determined autonomously. It is shown that these two types of input‐output models can be made workable by prefixing one or other of the import forecasting models to the input‐output model. Tests are made of the forecasting ability of the combined models.

Date: 1972
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