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FLASH GROWTH ESTIMATES USING CALENDAR INFORMATION

Ted Reininga and Brugt Kazemier ()

Review of Income and Wealth, 1998, vol. 44, issue 2, 229-237

Abstract: In 1991 Statistics Netherlands introduced their early flash estimates of the Quarterly National Accounts. In this article we examine a new, faster flash estimate, some three to four weeks earlier. The gain is made by using a simple regression technique and incomplete data. To compensate for the lack of data, information on the number of working days and shopping days was added to the regression. The inclusion of these calendar aspects significantly affect GDP growth: 0.30 percent point extra GDP growth for one extra working day, and 0.17 percent point for one extra shopping day. The cost of an earlier estimate is a decrease of reliability. The probability of a forecast error of over 0.5 percent point will be about 26 percent, compared to 12 percent for the official flash estimate.

Date: 1998
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4991.1998.tb00270.x

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