FUTURE GROWTH PATTERNS IN SOUTH AFRICA—A COMMENT*

T. A. Du Plessis and P. D. F. Strydom

South African Journal of Economics, 1969, vol. 37, issue 3, 252-259

Abstract: In their article Bailey and Hogan1 employ an econometric model containing 12 endogenous variables to be explained by 10 behaviour equations, two identities and 8 predetermined variables. An open Keynesian model is employed to present projections of possible future growth patterns of the South African economy for the period 1969/80. The performance of any model is to a large extent determined by the rationale behind the equations, and the plausibility of the coefficients used. It is the purpose of this comment, firstly, to offer certain criticisms of the equations and coefficients in the model; secondly, to discuss the growth rates of the exogenous variables used in the Economic Development Programme (EDP), 2 and criticised by Bailey and Hogan, and finally to evaluate the performance of the model.

Date: 1969
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