Macroeconomic Uncertainty in South Africa
South African Journal of Economics, 2018, vol. 86, issue 3, 361-380
This paper develops a new index of economic uncertainty for South Africa for the period 1990–2014. The index is constructed from three sources: (1) Disagreement among professional forecasters, (2) a count of international and local newspaper articles discussing economic uncertainty in South Africa and (3) mentions of uncertainty in the quarterly economic review of the South African Reserve Bank. The index shows high levels of uncertainty around the period of democratic transition in 1992–1994, the large depreciation of the currency in 2001 and the financial crisis of 2008. The uncertainty index is a leading indicator of a recession. An unanticipated increase in the index is associated with a fall in GDP, investment, industrial production and private sector employment. Contrary to evidence for the U.S.A and the U.K., uncertainty shocks are inflationary. These results are robust to controlling for global uncertainty shocks, consumer confidence and financial shocks.
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:86:y:2018:i:3:p:361-380
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0038-2280
Access Statistics for this article
South African Journal of Economics is currently edited by Philip A. Black
More articles in South African Journal of Economics from Economic Society of South Africa Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().