 Sub‐Saharan Africa's rising public debt stock: Is there a cause for concern?Olumide Olusegun Olaoye and Phillip A. Olomola South African Journal of Economics, 2023, vol. 91, issue 1, 85-115 Abstract: The study investigated public debt sustainability in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) by testing the reaction of the primary balance to positive and negative shocks in public debts in a panel of 45 SSA countries. The study adopts the innovative nonlinear fiscal reaction function and the dynamic panel threshold model to account for the potential asymmetric phenomenon in the public debt series. In line with extant studies, the study found that public debts in SSA are weakly sustainable and there is a highly procyclical fiscal policy bias in SSA countries, particularly in resource‐rich countries, indicating that governments' fiscal policy responses are expansionary during economic upturns and contractionary during recessions, which may aggravate recessions and worsen debt situations across SSA. For robustness, the study compares the results with emerging and developed economies. The results indicate that in advanced economies, public debt is sustainable and that fiscal policy response is countercyclical. The research and policy implications are discussed. Date: 2023 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:91:y:2023:i:1:p:85-115 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article South African Journal of Economics is currently edited by Philip A. Black More articles in South African Journal of Economics from Economic Society of South Africa Contact information at EDIRC. |
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