Bank Business Model Identification, Evolution and Outcomes: Evidence for South Africa

John O. S. Wilson, Linh Nguyen, Anna Sobiech and Lechedzani Kgari

South African Journal of Economics, 2025, vol. 93, issue 1, 112-137

Abstract: This paper presents the findings of an investigation of the type, evolution and impacts on performance of bank business models in South Africa. We identify the various business models used by South African banks using data on the monthly balance sheets of commercial banks made available by the South African Reserve Bank between 1993 and 2022. We cluster banks into different business models based on the composition of their balance sheets. Based on these clusters, we identify business models oriented to wholesale and retail funding, as well as to universal, investment and interbank activities. Overall, our clustering exercise returns six distinct business models. We observe large differences in terms of business size, performance and risk profiles across the business models. We also analyse the evolution of business models over time. The results suggest that banks exhibit relatively stable business models, but where transition exists it tends to be between certain business models. Increased risk is associated with a higher probability of banks shifting business models.

Date: 2025
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