Is the MPC's Voting Record Informative about Future UK Monetary Policy?

Petra Gerlach‐Kristen
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Petra Gerlach-Kristen

Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2004, vol. 106, issue 2, 299-313

Abstract: It is shown that the voting record of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England helps predict future policy rate changes. This result is robust to the inclusion of market participants’ expectations as measured by the slope of the term structure of money market rates and interest rate futures. Moreover, expectations seem to adjust to the information contained in the voting record, which suggests that publishing the minutes of MPC meetings increases the transparency of monetary policy.

Date: 2004
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