Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts
Pär Österholm ()
Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2009, vol. 111, issue 2, 387-415
Within a decision‐making group, such as a central bank's monetary‐policy committee, group members often hold differing views about the future of key economic variables. Such differences of opinion can be thought of as reflecting differing sets of judgement. This paper suggests modelling each agent's judgement as one scenario in a macroeconomic model. Each judgement set has a specific dynamic impact on the system and, accordingly, a particular predictive density—or fan chart—associated with it. A weighted linear combination of the predictive densities yields a final predictive density that reflects the uncertainty perceived by the agents generating the forecast.
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Working Paper: Incorporating judgement in fan charts (2006)
Working Paper: Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts (2006)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:scandj:v:111:y:2009:i:2:p:387-415
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0347-0520
Access Statistics for this article
Scandinavian Journal of Economics is currently edited by Richard Friberg, Matti Liski and Kjetil Storesletten
More articles in Scandinavian Journal of Economics from Wiley Blackwell
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().