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Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts

Pär Österholm ()

Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2009, vol. 111, issue 2, 387-415

Abstract: Within a decision‐making group, such as a central bank's monetary‐policy committee, group members often hold differing views about the future of key economic variables. Such differences of opinion can be thought of as reflecting differing sets of judgement. This paper suggests modelling each agent's judgement as one scenario in a macroeconomic model. Each judgement set has a specific dynamic impact on the system and, accordingly, a particular predictive density—or fan chart—associated with it. A weighted linear combination of the predictive densities yields a final predictive density that reflects the uncertainty perceived by the agents generating the forecast.

Date: 2009
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2009.01569.x

Related works:
Working Paper: Incorporating judgement in fan charts (2006) Downloads
Working Paper: Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts (2006) Downloads
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Scandinavian Journal of Economics is currently edited by Richard Friberg, Matti Liski and Kjetil Storesletten

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