Malthus in Sweden

Nils-Petter Lagerlof ()

Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2015, vol. 117, issue 4, 1091-1133

Abstract: This paper presents some new and unique cross-county data from 19th-century Sweden over birth, death, and marriage rates, grain prices, and harvests. Local grain prices correlate negatively with local harvests, suggesting imperfectly integrated food markets. The so-called positive and preventive checks are also present: good local harvests are associated with high birth and marriage rates, and low death rates. We also find that the fertility and marriage effects from changes in prices – but not harvests – are greater in counties that rely more on manufacturing, consistent with an open-economy model of fertility choice, where agents earn income from both agriculture and manufacturing.

Date: 2015
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