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The Importance of Tax Adjustments When Evaluating Wage Expectations

Stefan Klößner and Gregor Pfeifer

Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2019, vol. 121, issue 2, 578-605

Abstract: Using elicited expectations of future gross salaries, we evaluate characteristics causing German students to make larger or smaller estimation errors. While students seem to underestimate actual salaries by 18 percent, we show that these errors are highly attributable to misconceptions of the progressive income tax. Developing a suitable adjustment procedure, we correct students’ estimates and find that errors decline by 12 percentage points. Conducting regression analyses, we reveal strong connections with students’ age, gender, work experience, secondary school track, and knowledge about student loans. These results change notably if not controlling for students’ misconceptions of the tax system.

Date: 2019
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https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12296

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Scandinavian Journal of Economics is currently edited by Richard Friberg, Matti Liski and Kjetil Storesletten

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