Is the US Phillips curve stable? Evidence from Bayesian vector autoregressions

Sune Karlsson () and Pär Österholm

Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2023, vol. 125, issue 1, 287-314

Abstract: It has been claimed that the fall in US inflation during the Great Recession was surprisingly small. One possible explanation for this is that the Phillips curve is unstable and that its slope was lower around the Great Recession. We investigate the importance of time‐varying parameters using Bayesian vector autoregressions for inflation and unemployment. We find support for time variation in the inflation equation and an unstable Phillips curve that was somewhat flatter between 2005 and 2013. However, conditional forecasts mostly suggest that inflation was not unexpectedly high around the Great Recession, which puts the claim of a “missing disinflation” into question.

Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12508

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:scandj:v:125:y:2023:i:1:p:287-314

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0347-0520

Access Statistics for this article

Scandinavian Journal of Economics is currently edited by Richard Friberg, Matti Liski and Kjetil Storesletten

More articles in Scandinavian Journal of Economics from Wiley Blackwell
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().