Estimating the Prediction Mean Squared Error in Gaussian Stochastic Processes with Exponential Correlation Structure

Markus Abt

Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 1999, vol. 26, issue 4, 563-578

Abstract: Given one or more realizations from the finite dimensional marginal distribution of a stochastic process, we consider the problem of estimating the squared prediction error when predicting the process at unobserved locations. An approximation taking into account the additional variability due to estimating parameters involved in the correlation structure was developed by Kackar & Harville (1984) and was revisited by Harville & Jeske (1992) as well as Zimmerman & Cressie (1992). The present paper discusses an extension of these methods. The approaches will be compared via an extensive simulation study for models with and without random error term. Effects due to the designs used for prediction and for model fitting as well as due to the strength of the correlation between neighbouring observations of the stochastic process are investigated. The results show that considering the additional variability in the predictor due to estimating the covariance structure is of great importance and should not be neglected in practical applications.

Date: 1999
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