Correlated Binary Variables and Multi‐level Probability Assessments

Michail Papathomas

Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 2008, vol. 35, issue 1, 169-185

Abstract: Abstract. We introduce a fully parametric approach for updating beliefs regarding correlated binary variables, after marginal probability assessments based on information of varying quality are provided by an expert. This approach allows for the calculation of a predictive joint density for future assessments. The proposed methodology offers new insight into the parameters that control the dependence of the binary variables, and the relation of these parameters to the joint density of the probability assessments. A comprehensible elicitation procedure for the model parameters is put forward. The approach taken is motivated and illustrated through a practical application.

Date: 2008
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9469.2007.00563.x

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:scjsta:v:35:y:2008:i:1:p:169-185

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