Simpson's Paradox in Survival Models

Clelia Di Serio, Yosef Rinott and Marco Scarsini

Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 2009, vol. 36, issue 3, 463-480

Abstract: Abstract. In the context of survival analysis it is possible that increasing the value of a covariate X has a beneficial effect on a failure time, but this effect is reversed when conditioning on any possible value of another covariate Y. When studying causal effects and influence of covariates on a failure time, this state of affairs appears paradoxical and raises questions about the real effect of X. Situations of this kind may be seen as a version of Simpson's paradox. In this paper, we study this phenomenon in terms of the linear transformation model. The introduction of a time variable makes the paradox more interesting and intricate: it may hold conditionally on a certain survival time, i.e. on an event of the type {T>t} for some but not all t, and it may hold only for some range of survival times.

Date: 2009
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9469.2008.00637.x

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Working Paper: Simpson's Paradox in Survival Models (2009)
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