Nonparametric volatility change detection

Maria Mohr and Natalie Neumeyer

Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 2021, vol. 48, issue 2, 529-548

Abstract: We consider a nonparametric heteroscedastic time series regression model and suggest testing procedures to detect changes in the conditional variance function. The tests are based on a sequential marked empirical process and thus combine classical CUSUM tests from change point analysis with marked empirical process approaches known from goodness‐of‐fit testing. The tests are consistent against general alternatives of a change in the conditional variance function, a feature that classical CUSUM tests are lacking. We derive a simple limiting distribution and in the case of univariate covariates even obtain asymptotically distribution‐free tests. We demonstrate the good performance of the tests in a simulation study and consider exchange rates as a real data application.

Date: 2021
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