Martingale posterior distributions for cumulative hazard functions
Stephen G. Walker
Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 2024, vol. 51, issue 3, 936-955
Abstract:
This paper is about the modeling of cumulative hazard functions using martingale posterior distributions. The focus is on uncertainty quantification from a nonparametric perspective. The foundational Bayesian model in this case is the beta process and the classic estimator is the Nelson–Aalen. We use a sequence of estimators which form a martingale in order to obtain a random cumulative hazard function from the martingale posterior. The connection with the beta process is established and a number of illustrations is presented.
Date: 2024
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https://doi.org/10.1111/sjos.12712
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:scjsta:v:51:y:2024:i:3:p:936-955
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