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Modelling Evolving Long‐run Relationships: An Application to the Italian Energy Market

Claudio Morana

Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2000, vol. 47, issue 1, 72-93

Abstract: This paper considers a SUTSE model embedded in a dynamic framework to estimate an energy cost share model for the Italian economy in an evolving environment. This is achieved by allowing stochastic seasonal and trend components in the long‐run specification and constructing an error correction mechanism to model short‐run dynamics. Modelling instability in the structural time series approach is shown to be a very flexible approach to non conventional cointegration analysis. Tests for instability in the cointegrating regression support the evolving specification adopted.

Date: 2000
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Scottish Journal of Political Economy is currently edited by Tim Barmby, Andrew Hughes-Hallett and Campbell Leith

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