Sudden stops in a currency union – some lessons from the euro area

Lena Kraus, Jürgen Beier and Bernhard Herz

Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2019, vol. 66, issue 1, 115-138

Abstract: During the Great Financial Crisis several euro area Member States with current account deficits were subject to sharp reversals of private capital flows. We examine how the specific policy rules of the euro area's payments system TARGET2 affects the macroeconomic adjustments to sudden stops. We find that – in the short run – public capital flows in form of TARGET2 help euro area‐deficit countries to stabilize output, consumption, and investment after a sudden stop of private capital inflows. In the long run, however, euro area countries suffer under a prolonged economic recovery and accumulated large public debt as well as higher welfare losses relative to euro peggers.

Date: 2019
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