Business cycle duration dependence and foreign recessions

Gabe de Bondt and Philip Vermeulen

Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2021, vol. 68, issue 1, 1-19

Abstract: This study revisits business cycle duration dependence in G7 countries by controlling for foreign recessions, defined as the number of other G7 countries in a recession. Estimates from regime switching logit models show that the monthly likelihood of ending an expansion roughly doubles for every extra G7 country in recession, but the end of foreign recessions do not affect the ending of recessions. They also show that recessions are duration dependent in all G7 countries, but expansions only in the United States and Germany. The economic importance of foreign recessions and duration in driving business cycle phase changes vary across countries.

Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12261

Related works:
Working Paper: Business cycle duration dependence and foreign recessions (2018)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:68:y:2021:i:1:p:1-19

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0036-9292

Access Statistics for this article

Scottish Journal of Political Economy is currently edited by Tim Barmby, Andrew Hughes-Hallett and Campbell Leith

More articles in Scottish Journal of Political Economy from Scottish Economic Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().