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White elephants on quicksand: Low oil prices and high geopolitical risk

Hany Abdel‐Latif and Mahmoud El‐Gamal

Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2022, vol. 69, issue 1, 60-107

Abstract: We investigate the effects of low oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks on economic growth and investment in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. We find that negative shocks to oil prices and positive shocks to geopolitical risk have adverse effects on GDP and investment. Moreover, we find that the impact of investment on GDP in MENA countries is muted when oil prices are low and/or geopolitical risk level is high. These findings cast doubts on the prospects of mega‐project economic transformation plans as envisioned in 2030 visions for several MENA countries.

Date: 2022
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https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12279

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Scottish Journal of Political Economy is currently edited by Tim Barmby, Andrew Hughes-Hallett and Campbell Leith

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