Impact of drug supply chain on the dynamics of infectious diseases

Siddhartha Paul and Jayendran Venkateswaran

System Dynamics Review, 2017, vol. 33, issue 3-4, 280-310

Abstract: The effect of drug shortages on estimating the infectivity of antiviral‐treatable disease epidemics is evaluated using an illustrative dataset. Simulation‐based analysis shows that a given outbreak can be caused by either (i) a high infectivity parameter even with sufficient and timely supply of medicines, or (ii) a low infectivity parameter and poor supply of medicines. Also, the use of a stand‐alone epidemic model is found to overestimate disease transmissibility. A compartmental epidemic model is integrated with multi‐echelon supply chain models to further investigate the impact of medicine supply chain on the epidemic dynamics. In integrated models, medicine demands for the supply chain are generated from the disease model, and the medicine supply rate controls the recovery rate of patients in the disease model. It is found that supply chain aspects have a significant effect on epidemic dynamics. Some improvement schemes for supply chain management are also highlighted.

Date: 2017
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1592

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:sysdyn:v:33:y:2017:i:3-4:p:280-310

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0883-7066

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in System Dynamics Review from System Dynamics Society
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().