Commodity Price, Carry Trade, and the Volatility and Liquidity of Asian Currencies

Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, Jianxin Wang and Minxian Yang

The World Economy, 2014, vol. 37, issue 6, 811-833

Abstract: type="main" xml:id="twec12089-abs-0001">

This study examines how the volatility and liquidity of 10 Asian exchange rates against the US dollar change with volatilities in commodity price and carry trade over the period of January 2000 to June 2010. We find that uncertainties in commodity markets and carry trades are significantly correlated with the volatilities and the bid-ask spreads of most Asian currencies. The correlation with carry trade is generally stronger and has been rising over the sample period. While high volatilities in carry trade are associated with high volatilities in many Asian currencies, high volatilities in commodity price do not coincide with excessive volatilities in Asian currencies. This suggests that investors and policymakers should be more concerned with the volatility in carry trade.

Date: 2014
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