The Importance of Global Shocks for National Policymakers – Rising Challenges for Sustainable Monetary Policies

Joscha Beckmann, Ansgar Belke and Robert Czudaj

The World Economy, 2014, vol. 37, issue 8, 1101-1127

Abstract: type="main" xml:id="twec12127-abs-0001">

This paper analyses the importance of global shocks for the global economic developments and national policymakers from a novel perspective. On the one hand, we examine whether global factors convey additional information about monetary conditions not summarised by national aggregates. More specifically, we keep an eye on the question whether domestic monetary policies have become less effective in the wake of financial globalisation. We adopt a FAVAR framework to derive structural shocks on a worldwide level and their impact on other global and also national variables. We estimate our macromodel using quarterly data from Q1 1984 to Q4 2012 for the G7 countries plus the euro area. According to our results, global liquidity shocks significantly influence the global economy at the commodity price level. However, some other common shocks originating from house prices and GDP play a role at the global level as well.

Date: 2014
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