Measuring the role of the 1959 revolution on Cuba's economic performance

Hugo Jales, Thomas Kang, Guilherme Stein and Felipe Ribeiro

The World Economy, 2018, vol. 41, issue 8, 2243-2274

Abstract: This paper quantitatively measures the impact of the 1959 Cuban revolution on the country's GDP per capita and exports. We use various policy evaluation methods to obtain a valid counterfactual of Cuba's GDP per capita after the revolution using other Latin American countries as control candidates. We find evidence that regarding both outcomes, the overall impact of the revolution was negative. We also document a negative effect of the economic embargo imposed by the United States and a sizable, positive effect of Cuba's trade agreement with the Soviet Union.

Date: 2018
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