Dependence between the global gold market and emerging stock markets (E7+1): Evidence from Granger causality using quantile and quantile‐on‐quantile regression methods

Aviral Tiwari, Adeolu O. Adewuyi and David Roubaud ()

The World Economy, 2019, vol. 42, issue 7, 2172-2214

Abstract: This study examined the dependence between gold and stocks during 2002–18 in seven emerging countries. The study combined the bivariate cross‐quantilogram introduced recently with quantile‐on‐quantile regression (QQR) approaches to conduct comprehensive and complementary analyses. The QQR results for the full sample revealed a weak positive dependence in all the quantiles of gold and stock returns across all the countries selected during mild market conditions. The results for pre and post‐crisis periods largely were consistent with those obtained for the full sample, except for Turkey (pre‐crisis), and China and Indonesia (post‐crisis). The results of the causality test‐in‐mean (return) and that of the causality test‐in‐variance revealed no causal relation between stock and gold in the pre‐crisis period, while causality ran only from gold to some stocks in the post‐crisis period. Further, while there was volatility causality running only from gold to stocks during the pre‐crisis period, the volatility causality between the two markets was very high during the post‐crisis period. Therefore, we suggest that gold may have been a hedge for stocks during the pre‐crisis compared to the post‐crisis period. Further, international risk factors should be considered in optimal investment decisions between domestic and global markets' assets (stocks and gold).

Date: 2019
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