An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios

Karen Jackson and Oleksandr Shepotylo

The World Economy, 2021, vol. 44, issue 1, 2-20

Abstract: This paper demonstrates the welfare implications of the differential disintegration of the EU. Using a structural gravity approach, our estimates suggest that the rest of the EU countries have much more to lose from the disintegration of the EU compared to a disorderly Brexit. At the same time, neighbouring high‐income and middle‐income countries, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Norway, are expected to benefit from EU disintegration under some scenarios because trade would be diverted from EU countries.

Date: 2021
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https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13049

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