How Central Asia to Escape from trade isolation?: Policy targeted scenarios by CGE modelling

Inkyo Cheong and Valijon Turakulov

The World Economy, 2022, vol. 45, issue 8, 2622-2648

Abstract: It has been 30 years since Central Asian ‘‐stan’ countries, namely, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, declared their independence in 1991. The Republics have chosen various transition paths from centrally planned to the market‐based economic system. The research found that Central Asian leaders’ protectionist policy, on top of the landlocked geographical environment, made trade costly, rendering these countries further isolated. Consequently, economic development slows down, unemployment increases and poverty rate extremes. Eventually, the isolated region (relatively, excluding Kazakhstan) is imprisoned in a low‐income trap and framed into a vicious circle. As a solution for tackling high‐trade costs in the region, this paper utilises the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Computational General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling to simulate the impacts of implementing policy‐targeted scenarios. The study presents that tariff reduction/elimination and trade facilitation policies could flourish the region by bringing significant economic welfare and robust GDP growth. The trade facilitation scenarios impact the region's economy much more positively than do tariff liberalisation scenarios.

Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13195

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:worlde:v:45:y:2022:i:8:p:2622-2648

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0378-5920

Access Statistics for this article

The World Economy is currently edited by David Greenaway

More articles in The World Economy from Wiley Blackwell
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().