Resilience to Deglobalisation

Peter A. G. van Bergeijk

The World Economy, 2025, vol. 48, issue 8, 1839-1849

Abstract: This article discusses how world (agricultural) trade fared in an episode of deglobalisation of 15 years. Through the lenses of world trade and production, no return is apparent to the pattern of increasing globalisation that was dominant in the post‐second world war period up till the Great Recession. Paradoxically, however, world trade has been resilient to major trade shocks, including those related to the Financial Crisis, the COVID‐19 pandemic, and the recent wars that impacted logistics of global production networks and stimulated policies towards greater self‐reliance and autonomy. The article discusses the resilience and distinctiveness of agricultural trade during major economic shocks, the shift in long‐term trends due to deglobalisation. It ends with some broader implications for understanding economic resilience, disaster impacts, and historical economic analysis and discusses the potential repercussions of the second Trump administration.

Date: 2025
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