Challenges for Energy Transition: Incorporating Maritime and Geopolitical Risks

Stefan Vögele, Judith Alvre, Andrew G. Ross and Dirk Rübbelke

The World Economy, 2025, vol. 48, issue 8, 1850-1862

Abstract: Recent global events have underscored the significant impact on global value chains. Incidents such as the Suez Canal blockage, supply shortages caused by the COVID‐19 pandemic and the Ukraine‐Russia war have raised concerns about potential future risks and how to measure them. Risk assessments are crucial for stakeholders throughout the supply chain and play an essential role with regard to economic welfare and sustainability, including considerations for energy transition. To assess risks in global supply chains, it is important to map these chains and quantify the potential disruptions that could occur. Our research specifically examines the risks related to the trade of intermediates used in production, factoring in risks associated with maritime transport routes. Using the automotive sectors of Germany, Japan and the United States as examples, our analysis reveals that, in many risk categories, the US automotive sector faces lower risks compared to its counterparts. The findings emphasise that supply chains inherently involve risks, which must be considered and balanced against one another. Importantly, a higher share of imports does not necessarily lead to increased risks. Therefore, reducing import shares is not always a viable strategy for risk mitigation.

Date: 2025
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