INVESTIGATING A RANDOM WALK IN AIR CARGO EXPORTS OF FRESH AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS: EVIDENCE FROM A DEVELOPING COUNTRY

Freddie Festo Mawanga
Additional contact information
Freddie Festo Mawanga: Makerere University Business School, Kampala, Uganda

Studies in Business and Economics, 2017, vol. 12, issue 1, 129-140

Abstract: Since the 1990s exports of fresh agricultural products by air from Uganda have been increasing and making a significant contribution to her International trade. Products include mostly fish, flowers, papain, and vanilla constituting over 95% of all air exports. Farming of the items is mainly by small scale farmers who depend on the natural climate of the country. Consequently, monthly yields are also climate dependent making individual export volumes unpredictable. In spite of these uncertainties, this study was intended to investigate possible existence of a model in the trends. Monthly data were collected from Uganda Civil Aviation Authority from 2009 to 2012. Analysis was by using ARIMA Approach with the help of Eviews 8.Visually the data exhibited irregular patterns and without a trend or seasonality. First order differencing stationarised the data and the residuals had a random non-significant noise suggesting a Random Walk Model expressed as ARIMA (0, 1, 0) and a negative drift. The model shows a link between current and one lag export volumes and the negative drift is a convergence of successive differences in export volumes. These findings have policy implications in expansion and forecasting of the exports potential of applicability of Random Walk Theory in practice.

Keywords: ARIMA; Fresh Agricultural Exports; Random Walk; Drift (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://eccsf.ulbsibiu.ro/RePEc/blg/journl/12110mawanga.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:blg:journl:v:12:y:2017:i:1:p:129-140

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Studies in Business and Economics from Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences Dumbravii Avenue, No 17, postal code 550324, Sibiu, Romania. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mihaela Herciu ().