THE ASSESSMENT OF FORECAST INTERVALS UNCERTAINTY FOR OIL PRICES

Mihaela Simionescu

Studies in Business and Economics, 2014, vol. 9, issue 2, 78-86

Abstract: The main objective of this study is to assess the uncertainty of daily forecast intervals for highs and lows of WTI crude oil spot prices. For constructing the prediction intervals on the horizon 24th of February 2014-25th of March 2014, different quantitative methods were used, the historical errors method providing the best results. All the tests (independence test, the unconditional coverage and the combined test) conduct us to the same result: only for the forecast intervals based on historical error method there are not significant differences based on ex-ante and ex-post probability.

Keywords: forecast interval; uncertainty; LR tests; historical errors method; oil prices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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