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A Reinvestigation of the Hysteresis Hypothesis in the OECD Countries

Melis Tartici
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Melis Tartici: Ankara, Turkey.

Econometrics Letters, 2015, vol. 2, issue 1, 22-40

Abstract: This study re-investigates the hysteresis hypothesis in unemployment for 24 OECD countries. The results obtained in the literature are quite mixed for the OECD countries, with the findings highly sensitive to the econometric methodology applied and data used. Therefore, to shed some light on this debate in addition to the conventional unit root tests, a variety of other tests that allow for asymmetric adjustment, structural breaks or both simultaneously are also considered. Our results show that the hysteresis effect in unemployment was confirmed for most of the countries studied according to all tests applied. Thus, the labor markets of the OECD countries calls for urgent reform, especially if they want their jobless rates to return to their pre 2008-2009 global financial crisis levels.

Keywords: Hysteresis in unemployment; Nonlinear unit root test; Unit root test with structural break; Unit root test with both structural break and asymmetric nonlinearity. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C23 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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