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Nowcasting UK GDP growth

Venetia Bell (), Lai Wah Co (), Sophie Stone () and Gavin Wallis ()
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Venetia Bell: Bank of England
Lai Wah Co: Bank of England
Sophie Stone: Bank of England

Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 2014, vol. 54, issue 1, 58-68

Abstract: Official estimates of UK GDP growth are published with a lag, but other data and statistical models provide an early indication of GDP growth. This article describes the approaches taken by Bank staff to produce early estimates (‘nowcasts’) of GDP growth, ahead of the publication of official estimates. Although the confidence bands around the Bank staff’s nowcasts can be large, these estimates have tended to be more accurate than those from a simple statistical model.

Date: 2014
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