How could a shock to growth in China affect growth in the United Kingdom?

Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and Kate Stratford ()
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Kate Stratford: Bank of England

Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 2016, vol. 56, issue 1, 4-11

Abstract: This article assesses how a shock to Chinese growth could affect the UK economy using an empirical model of the world economy that exploits the historical comovement between international business cycles. We find that a 1% slowing in China is likely to reduce UK GDP by around 0.1%. This impact arises mainly from the increasingly important role of China in the global economy - that is, via the United Kingdom’s indirect links with China through its main trading partners.

Date: 2016
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