Gauging the globe: the Bank's approach to nowcasting world GDP

Gene Kindberg-Hanlon () and Andrej Sokol ()
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Gene Kindberg-Hanlon: Bank of England
Andrej Sokol: Bank of England

Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 2018, vol. 58, issue 3, 21-30

Abstract: Global activity is a key driver of UK GDP and a bellwether of prospects. Nowcasting global GDP growth, or predicting outturns ahead of their release, is therefore a key input into the Monetary Policy Committee’s assessment of the UK economic outlook. The Bank uses a suite of models to assess the momentum in the world economy in real time. A wide range of financial market, survey-based and high-frequency output indicators are used to inform the suite. The statistical suite of global nowcasting models tends to provide an accurate assessment of global activity growth, and significantly outperformed a simple model that did not benefit from the use of high-frequency data during the financial crisis.

Date: 2018
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