 Predicting Economic Activity via the Yield Spread: Literature Survey and Empirical Evidence in Korea (in Korean)Jaeho Yun ()
Economic Analysis (Quarterly), 2020, vol. 26, issue 3, 1-47 Abstract: This paper surveys research since the 1990s on the ability of the yield spread and its components (i.e., expectation spread and term premium components) for future economic activity, and also conducts an empirical analysis of their forecasting ability using the yield data of Korean government bonds. This paper’s survey, particularly for the US, shows that the yield spread has significant predictive power for some macroeconomic variables, but since the mid-1980s, its predictive power seems to have declined, possibly due to stronger inflation targeting. Next, this paper’s empirical analysis using Korean data indicates that the yield spread, and the term premium component in particular, has significant predictive power for industrial production (IP) growth, consumer price index growth, and the IP gap. An out-of-sample analysis shows that the prediction equations are unstable over time, and that in predicting IP growth, the yield spread decomposition makes a significant contribution to the prediction of IP growth. Keywords: Yield spread; Forecasting ability for future economic activity; Expectation spread; Term premium (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bok:journl:v:26:y:2020:i:3:p:1-47 Access Statistics for this article Economic Analysis (Quarterly) is currently edited by Wook Sohn, Hwan-koo Kang and Jaerang Lee More articles in Economic Analysis (Quarterly) from Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea Contact information at EDIRC. |
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