Deseasonalizing Macroeconomic Data: A Caveat to Applied Researchers in Turkey

C. Emre Alper and S. Boragan Aruoba

Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, 2001, vol. 5, issue 18, 33-52

Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of regular seasonal fluctuations of macroeconomic variables in Turkey due to the religious events (religious holidays and Ramadan)[1] in monthly frequency. Conventional deterministic deseasonalization techniques are applied to the detrended and linearized major macroeconomic series. Investigation of the seasonally filtered series reveals residual seasonal regularities vis-à-vis the religious holidays and Ramadan for some of the series. Consequences of ignoring this type of seasonality are also scrutinized.

Date: 2001
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