Abnormal Return Fluctuations in the ISE (Istanbul Stock Exchange) Before and After the General Elections in Turkey

Pinar Evrim Mandaci

Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, 2003, vol. 7, issue 27, 1-14

Abstract: The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of general elections in Turkey on the ISE-100 index return. Since the ISE started its activities, Turkey has undergone four general elections, in sequence, on 20 November 1991, 24 December 1995, 18 April 1999, and lastly 3 November 2002. It is observed that the investors have been in expectation of outstanding price fluctuations on the verge and in the wake of general elections. By moving from this fact, in this study the ISE-100 index returns fifteen days before and after the general elections are to be analyzed. It follows that it is possible to obtain statistically significant abnormal returns within the mentioned periods. For instance, abnormal returns were witnessed three days before and two days after the general elections on 18 April 1999. Besides, in the first, second and fourth day following the general elections on 3 November 2002 a similar trend resurfaced. However, for the majority of the days proceeding or following elections, a statistically meaningful abnormal return was not observed.

Date: 2003
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