Forecasting Thai Mortality by Using the Lee-Carter Model

Yasungnoen Natthasurang () and Sattayatham Pairote ()
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Yasungnoen Natthasurang: Institute of Science – School of Mathematics, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhorn Ratchasima, Muang Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand
Sattayatham Pairote: Institute of Science – School of Mathematics, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhorn Ratchasima, Muang Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand

Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2016, vol. 10, issue 1, 91-105

Abstract: In this paper, we model the mortality rate in Thailand by using the Lee-Carter model. Three classical methods, i.e. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), Weighted Least Square (WLS), and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) are used to estimate the parameters of the Lee-Carter model. With these methods, we investigate the goodness of fit for the mortality rate spanning the period 2003 to 2012. The fitted models are compared. The autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) is used to forecast the general index and mortality rate the time period from 2013 to 2022. As a result, we also forecast Thai life expectancy at birth.

Keywords: Mortality rate; Lee-Carter model; Life expectancy at birth; Singular Value Decomposition; Maximum Likelihood Estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1515/apjri-2014-0042

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