Estimating Risk Relativity of Driving Records using Generalized Additive Models: A Statistical Approach for Auto Insurance Rate Regulation

Xie Shengkun ()
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Xie Shengkun: Global Management Studies, Ted Rogers School of Management, Toronto Metropolitan University, M5B 2K3, Toronto, Canada

Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2024, vol. 18, issue 1, 55-86

Abstract: Studying driving records (DR) and assessing their risk relativity is crucial for auto insurance rate regulation. Typically, the evaluation of DR involves estimating risk using empirical loss cost or modeling approaches such as Generalized Linear Models (GLM). This article presents a novel methodology employing Generalized Additive Models (GAM) to estimate the risk relativity of DR. By treating the integer level of DR as a continuous variable, the proposed method offers enhanced flexibility and practicality in evaluating the associated risk. Extending the linear model to GAM is a critical advancement that harnesses advanced statistical methods in actuarial practice, providing a more statistically robust application of the proposed approach. Moreover, the integration of functional patterns with Class or Territory enables the investigation of statistical evidence supporting the existence of associations between risk factors. This approach helps address the issue of potential double penalties in insurance pricing and calls for a statistical solution to overcome this challenge. Our study demonstrates that utilizing the GAM approach yields a more balanced estimation of DR relativity, thereby reducing discrimination among different DR levels. This finding highlights the potential of this statistical method to improve fairness and accuracy in auto insurance rate making and regulation.

Keywords: rate-making; generalized linear model; generalized additive model; insurance rate regulation; risk relativity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1515/apjri-2023-0032

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