Logit Regression Based Bankruptcy Prediction of Korean Firms

Han Chulwoo, Kang Hyeongmook, Kim Gamin and Yi Joseph

Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2012, vol. 7, issue 1, 28

Abstract: In this article, we develop a bankruptcy prediction model for Korean firms that utilize logit regression. We find that not only financial accounting ratios but equity market inputs and macro-economic variables are also important predictors of bankruptcy. However, unlike the findings of Campbell et al. (2008), using market value of equity in computing total assets did not improve the model. We compare the model with a Merton-type structural model and find that our model demonstrates a higher prediction power in distinguishing distressed firms from healthy firms. Though our model proves to perform better, we are careful to make a conclusion and rather suggest using several models for the purpose of risk management to reduce model risk.

Keywords: bankruptcy prediction; probability of default; reduced form model; logit regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1515/2153-3792.1159

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