Measuring U.S. Hurricane Risk Associated with Natural Climate Cycle and Global Warming Effects

Yang Chih-Yuan () and Chang Chia-Chien ()
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Yang Chih-Yuan: Department of Finance, Tainan University of Technology, Tainan City, Taiwan
Chang Chia-Chien: Department of Finance, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Science, Kaohsiung City, Taiwan

Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2013, vol. 7, issue 2, 1-26

Abstract: This paper develops a threshold function of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index and allows the effect of AMO index changes over time due to global warming to yield improvements in the forecasts of U.S. hurricane activity. The influence of the threshold effect, the AMO effect, and the global warming effect on Value at Risk and expected shortfall of hurricane risk is also examined. The empirical results of a time-variant threshold Poisson regression model provide an excellent projection for which the forecasting error of average annual U.S. hurricane activity is less than one. We find that the threshold effect and global warming effect dominate the AMO effect. In particular, the global warming effect dominates the AMO effect in extreme hurricane events, and this domination increases over time.

Keywords: hurricane activity; AMO index; global warming; threshold poisson regression model; hurricane risk measurement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1515/apjri-2013-0002

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