Economics at your fingertips  

The Longevity Prospects of Australian Seniors: An Evaluation of Forecast Method and Outcome

Tickle Leonie () and Booth Heather ()
Additional contact information
Tickle Leonie: Department of Applied Finance and Actuarial Studies, Macquarie University, Herring Road North Ryde, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia
Booth Heather: Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute, Australian National University, Canberra, NSW, Australia

Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2014, vol. 8, issue 2, 34

Abstract: Continuing rapid changes in the level and pattern of mortality require that forecasts are available that are timely, relevant and reliable. This paper evaluates a previous forecast of the mortality and longevity of Australian seniors, both in terms of the validity of the chosen method – the Booth–Maindonald–Smith (BMS) variant of Lee–Carter – and the accuracy and reliability of the forecast itself. The validity of the method is assessed by a comprehensive review and evaluation of available methods, confirming BMS as the method of choice. The accuracy and reliability of the forecast is assessed by comparing it with actual experience and with a new forecast of period and cohort survival probabilities and life expectancies. The evaluation and the current forecast itself will inform the actuarial profession and wider industry in the areas of mortality and longevity risk as well as public debate and policy in population health and ageing.

Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) ... -0004.xml?format=INT (text/html)
For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this article

Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance is currently edited by Michael R. Powers

More articles in Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance from De Gruyter
Series data maintained by Peter Golla ().

Page updated 2017-09-29
Handle: RePEc:bpj:apjrin:v:8:y:2014:i:2:p:34:n:1