Multivariate zero-inflated causal model for regional mobility restriction effects on consumer spending

Hong Taekwon (), Lu Wenbin (), Yang Shu () and Ghosh Pulak ()
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Hong Taekwon: Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA
Lu Wenbin: Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA
Yang Shu: Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA
Ghosh Pulak: Decision Sciences & Centre for Public Policy, Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore 560076, India

Journal of Causal Inference, 2025, vol. 13, issue 1, 41

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic presents challenges to both public health and the economy. Our objective is to examine how household expenditure, a significant component of private demand, reacts to changes in mobility. This investigation is crucial for developing policies that balance public health and the economic and social impacts. We utilize extensive scanner data from a major retail chain in India and Google mobility data to address this important question. However, there are a few challenges, including outcomes with excessive zeros and complicated correlations, time-varying confounding, and irregular observation times. We propose incorporating a multiplicative structural nested mean model with inverse intensity weighting techniques to tackle these challenges. Our framework allows semiparametric/nonparametric estimation for nuisance functions. The resulting rate doubly robust estimator enables the use of a conventional sandwich variance estimator without taking into account the variability introduced by these flexible estimation methods. We demonstrate the properties of our method theoretically and further validate it through simulation studies. Using the Indian consumer spending data and Google mobility data, our method reveals that the substantial reduction in mobility has a significant impact on consumers’ fresh food expenditure.

Keywords: multiplicative structural nested mean model; multivariate zero-inflated outcomes; rate double robustness; inverse intensity weighting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bpj:causin:v:13:y:2025:i:1:p:41:n:1002

DOI: 10.1515/jci-2024-0017

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